The World Meteorological Organization affirmed that, if greenhouse gas emissions are not stopped, the climate will become more and more extreme.
In the Paris Agreement on Climate Change some 200 countries agreed, albeit non-bindingly, to a limit of between 1.5°C and 2°C in the increase in the planet’s temperature by the end of the century. However, the Earth already registers an average increase of 1.1°C. It is for this reason that the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned that there is «a 50% chance that, at least in one of the next five years, the average annual temperature of the planet will temporarily exceed the lower limit» previously established.
“This 1.5°C threshold is not a random number, but indicates the point at which the effects of the climate will become increasingly damaging not only for people, but for the entire planet,” explained Professor Petteri Taalas. , WMO Secretary General. In a report issued by this entity dependent on the United Nations (UN), it was found that «the sustained increase in temperatures due to climate change will continue in the coming years.»
Therefore, they warned that «as long as greenhouse gas emissions do not cease, the climate will be increasingly extreme.» Therefore, they pointed out that «there is a 50% chance that, at least in one of the next five years, the average annual temperature of the planet will temporarily exceed pre-industrial levels by 1.5 °C, the lower limit of the Agreement of Paris on Climate Change. What’s more, according to the scientists, «those probabilities increase with the passage of time.»
“The chances of global warming exceeding that mark (of 1.5°C) were close to zero in 2015, but have been increasing ever since. For the period between 2017 and 2021 they were calculated at 10%, while for the period from 2022 to 2026 that percentage reaches almost 50%”, the experts highlighted.
They even detailed that «there is a 93% probability that at least one of the years in the period between 2022 and 2026 will become the warmest ever recorded and unseat 2016 from first place.» “As long as greenhouse gas emissions do not cease, temperatures will continue to rise. In parallel, the oceans will continue to warm and become more acidic, sea ice and glaciers will continue to melt, sea levels will continue to rise, and weather conditions will continue to become more extreme. Warming is disproportionately more pronounced in the Arctic and what happens in that region affects us all,» Taalas described.
«If one year of the period 2022-2026 were to exceed that value of 1.5 °C, this would not mean that the symbolic threshold of the Paris Agreement had been exceeded, but it would show that we are getting closer and closer to a situation in which that the 1.5°C limit could be exceeded for a prolonged period,” said UK Met Office expert Leon Hermanson, one of those responsible for preparing the report.
The document also highlighted that for each year between 2022 and 2026, the average annual temperature is expected to be between 1.1°C and 1.7°C higher than pre-industrial levels, for which there is “a 48-fold probability % that, in at least one of the years, the global temperature near the surface exceeds pre-industrial levels by 1.5 °C”, although they clarified that “the probability that the five-year average exceeds that threshold is minimal (10% )”.
Among other points, the report warns that in 2021 «the global average temperature stood 1.1 °C above pre-industrial reference levels.» However, thanks to consecutive episodes of the phenomenon called «La Niña» at the beginning and end of the year, there was a reduction in world temperatures. “But that cooling effect is only provisional and does not reverse the long-term global warming trend,” they clarified.
On the other hand, if episodes of the phenomenon called «El Niño» were established, there would be an almost immediate rise in temperatures. An effect that was already evident in 2016, the year described as the «warmest on record to date.» In any case, the experts clarified that, «at the moment, there are no indications that point to the formation of an El Niño episode in the quarter from December to February 2022/2023.»
