One of the attributes that differentiates us from any other species is our ability to think ahead. We often live pending what can happen, anxious to achieve what tomorrow holds for us or worried about not knowing for sure.
One of the simplest examples can be seen in weather forecasts. So much interest is aroused by the temperature that it will be the next day, that there are even daily programs on radio and television, web pages and publications in newspapers and social networks, dedicated to this matter. And yet, until very recently, the majority of the population ignored the advance of climate change and its consequences.
Current forecasts already put us at a point of no return on some aspects of global warming. This is stated in the 6th IPCC assessment report: Climate Change 2022, which is based on more than 30,000 scientific studies and includes the analyzes and conclusions of 270 authors from 67 countries. It provides one of the most comprehensive analyzes of the intensifying impacts of climate change and future risks, as well as setting out the most effective and feasible approaches to climate adaptation.
Next, we will analyze some of their most important conclusions and the role that companies have in the mitigation phase:
The conclusions of this report are not very encouraging. According to experts, climate change has already caused substantial damage and increasingly irreversible losses in some ecosystems. And compared to previous exercises, the scope and magnitude of its impacts are much greater than those of previous evaluations. Let’s see some of the most relevant:
– Temperature rise: global warming is a reality. This is confirmed by the fact that the global average temperature has increased by an average of 1.1°C since the beginning of the industrial era. According to the Paris Agreement, a maximum temperature of 2°C is established, but the objective of the international community is to limit this rise to 1.5°C. A warning, if we follow the current trend we would be heading to a scenario of between 2.3 and 2.7°C by 2100.
– Extreme events: according to the IPCC conclusions, if the warming exceeds 1.5°C, we will witness extreme events such as strong storms, severe heat waves, longer droughts, more torrential rainfall, etc. In addition, the report states that exceeding 1.5°C also increases the probability of high-impact events, such as massive forest dieback, which would turn critical carbon sinks into carbon sources.
– Food insecurity: as a consequence of the increase in temperatures and the meteorological phenomena derived from the advance of climate change, some crops are already being affected. In fact, according to the authors of the study, the productivity of the three main crops in the world, corn, wheat and rice, has already been reduced by 5%. In the future the predictions are much worse. It is estimated that, with a warming of 2°C, food security in regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia or Central America will be considerably affected.
– Water scarcity: the importance of setting the global temperature limit below 2°C is clearly seen in the impact of this temperature on one of our most precious resources: water. If we get to this scenario, between 800 and 3 billion people around the world will suffer from chronic water shortages. And if we add 2 more degrees until reaching 4°C, the figure would rise to 4,000 million people.
– Extinction and displacement of species: According to the report, the impacts of climate change have already caused about half of the species assessed globally to have moved towards the poles or, on land, also to higher altitudes. In addition, the first extinctions of species caused by climate change have also occurred. In this sense, we must warn that the risk of extinction of threatened species will be 10 times greater with an increase of 3°C compared to a warming of 1.5°C.
– Irreversible sea level rise: Other impacts are close to irreversibility, such as the impacts of hydrological changes resulting from the retreat of glaciers, or changes in some montane and Arctic ecosystems caused by thawing permafrost. The study shows that with just 1.5°C of global warming, many glaciers around the world will disappear entirely or lose most of their mass.
In addition, on an economic level, the report shows that climate change will cause between 32 million and 132 million people to fall into extreme poverty over the next 10 years.
Finally, health will also be strongly affected by this phenomenon, causing a greater number of heart diseases and mental health problems. The incidence of heat-related mortality will also increase. For example, in a high emissions scenario, the increased risk of flooding could cause an additional 48,000 deaths in children under 15 years of age in 2030 due to diarrhea.
The Mediterranean region will undoubtedly be one of the most affected by this phenomenon and, consequently, the Iberian Peninsula. Climate change in Spain will mean, among other things:
– Increase in heat waves: if the current rate of emissions continues, extreme heat waves will become more frequent. This could cause heat stroke-related deaths to increase 40-fold.
– Water deficit: The IPCC points out that, in southern Europe, more than a third of the population will suffer water scarcity with 2°C of warming; double if it reaches 3°C. This would lead to increased economic losses in sectors dependent on water and energy.
– Biodiversity loss: Analyzes show that by 2050, unless global emissions drop considerably, ecosystems such as Posidonia seagrass beds in the Mediterranean will become extinct.
– Crop loss: In the last 50 years, crop loss due to drought and extreme heat has tripled across Europe. It is believed that the south of this region will be severely punished in this regard in the coming years, putting food security at risk.
But do not despair, you can still fight climate change. According to Stephen Cornelius, WWF Global Director for the IPCC, “The silver lining is that not all the most extreme impacts are inevitable. With swift action, we can limit their frequency and severity and help people and ecosystems adapt to some impacts.»
It goes without saying that the business sector has a fundamental role in this task. But how can they act? Next, we will list some actions that can be carried out in this regard:
– Reduce your negative impact on the planet by setting science-based CO2 emission reduction targets.
– Reduce its negative impact on daily activities, through the implementation of plans to reduce the ecological footprint (measured and certified).
– Replace energy sources with clean and renewable energy.
– Moving from the linear model to a circular economic model.
– Develop eco-efficiency and sustainable mobility plans.
